The cost lines that routinely miss the model, and why entry usually takes twice as long as planned.
Market entry models almost always include direct costs: registration, rent, the first team, marketing. They almost never include leadership time spent on approvals, or the cost of first-year mistakes.
The second systematic gap is local regulation. It is costed as the sum of fees, while the timeline is forgotten: certification can take longer than construction.
The third is the cost of exit. If the market does not work out, winding down also costs money, and that figure is better known before entry than after.
In our models the underestimated lines usually add 30 to 60 per cent on top of the original budget. That is why it is worth modelling three scenarios rather than one.
- Budgets are underestimated by 30 to 60 per cent
- Certification time is most often what sets the launch date
- The cost of exit is worth costing before entry